We’re less than two weeks away from the NFL Draft, and things look calmer than Lake Michigan on a windless 70-degree spring day when it comes to the No. 1 pick in the draft.
Sign it, seal it, send it in: With the first pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears select University of Southern California quarterback Caleb Williams.
America’s BetMGM, everywhere.
Yep. As calm as a windless 70-degree spring day on Lake Michigan.
And then we get to pick No. 2, held by the Washington Commanders. Chaos has the potential to enter the draft at this point.
Forget Mel Kiper Jr; might as well put the Joker in charge.
With the second and third picks … 5k575q
As it stands, LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels is at -150 to go No. 2 at FanDuel, while Caesars has the number up at -220. North Carolina QB Drake Maye is next up, as high as +160 at Caesars. And creeping up the draft board is Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who’s as high as +1000 at FanDuel but down to +400 at DraftKings.
While the Commanders are widely expected to hold on to the pick, who they’re taking remains a mystery.
“Adam Schefter and Albert Breer have both been pretty vocal about Jayden Daniels likely being the pick at No. 2,” said Connor Allen, the sports betting manager at 4For4 Football. “With that being said, (Commanders’ general manager) Adam Peters comes from San Francisco, where they historically do a great job not having any leaks.”
And while ultimate insiders like Schefter and Breer are obviously tuned into the thoughts and processes of front offices around the NFL, they’re also not always right.
Back in 2021, both Schefter and Breer were hearing Mac Jones was going to the 49ers with the third pick, Allen pointed out. But it the 49ers eventually settled on Trey Lance.
“While bigger media who are undeniably plugged in lean towards Jayden, I still don’t think this is a done deal by any means,” Allen said.
As goes the No. 2 pick, so goes the No. 3 pick, where the New England Patriots are currently situated. And while they’re a team in need of a quarterback, there’s very little intel coming out of Foxboro.
The odds for the No. 3 pick have Maye at even odds at FanDuel, as of writing, followed by Daniels at +230. McCarthy — who shares an alma mater with some other ex-Patriots quarterback — is at +250. The Patriots could also trade their pick to another quarterback-needy team, such as the Minnesota Vikings.
No. 4 and more 4xj5p
At No. 4, the Arizona Cardinals will almost certainly be peppered with offers, as it would appear only one of the four quarterbacks mentioned above will still be available.
If the Cards hold the pick, however, oddsmakers believe their choice will be Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. He’s at -200 at Caesars to be the fourth pick, but McCarthy is right there, as low as +150 at Caesars (up to +400 at FanDuel).
Of course, this assumes Harrison is the Cardinals’ first choice at wideout. There’s been plenty of buzz that LSU’s Malik Nabers is actually the top choice for many teams.
Allen, however, thinks the Cards are a lock for Harrison — unless they trade the pick.
“The Cardinals are enamored with him and will almost certainly pick him at fourth overall if they don’t trade out,” he said. “The only way I see MHJ not going first is if Arizona trades out at four and then the Los Angeles Chargers pick an offensive lineman at five. Then the New York Giants would be on the clock with their pick at wideout. They could be a team who has Nabers over MHJ — we really don’t know.”
Meanwhile, in the market for first wideout off the board, Harrison is the overwhelming favorite at -600 at FanDuel. But if the scenario above plays out, Nabers will be a steal at +400.
Meanwhile, back to the Chargers at pick No. 5: Right now, the sportsbooks think the team will go a wideout with the pick, seemingly based on the fact they released Mike Williams and traded Keenan Allen. Nabers is the favorite to go fifth at +200 at BetMGM. Harrison is next at +300, and there’s McCarthy again at +450, allowing for the potential of a trade.
But as Allen pointed out, there’s a definite possibility that old-school coach Jim Harbaugh keeps the pick and goes the offensive line route. If so, Norte Dame lineman Joe Alt is next on the board at +500 at Caesars. The next OL is Taliese Fuaga from Oregon State, who’s as high as +2500 at DraftKings.
For this author, a chaos-free first five picks would look like this: Williams, Daniels, Maye, Harrison, Alt. Evan Silva’s first mock draft at Establish the Run allows for this possibility but flip-flops Maye and Daniels.
But virtually any trade involving any of these five teams will bring chaos. Put that at -10000.
