The biggest game of the Super Bowl 57 between the Chiefs and Eagles, was in danger of being overshadowed by a pop star’s parents meeting a tight end’s parents. But a last-minute change to the Eras Tour schedule means Taylor Swift won’t be in Kansas City for Monday Night Football, which means her mom and dad won’t be introduced to Travis Kelce’s mom and dad — which means the world is free to focus on the actual football.
The 7-2 Chiefs are the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five years, while the 8-1 Eagles are effectively the co-favorites in the NFC, roughly neck and neck on most sportsbook apps with the 49ers.
As the home team, K.C. was favored as of Monday morning by either 2.5 points (with -115 juice at such books as DraftKings, the latter at even money). That’s one way to bet this game.
Or there’s the moneyline, where the most customer-friendly price on the Chiefs was -145 at bet365, and ESPN BET, while Philly could be had for +126 at FanDuel, one penny higher than most competing sportsbooks.
But there’s one additional way to wager on this game — indirectly — if you have a strong leaning on which team will prevail. A bet on either quarterback, Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts, to win NFL MVP comes with additional risk and variables, but it pays a lot better than a Monday Night Football moneyline bet.
Last year’s top two, this year’s top two 22a6d
At the majority of top betting sites, Hurts and Mahomes are dead-even co-favorites on the MVP odds board. At bet365, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars, both QBs are +300 for the award. That +300 price is the best you’ll find anywhere on Hurts. Mahomes can be had for the slight outlier price of +330 at DraftKings.
So those are the options here: Mahomes at +330, Hurts at +300.
Whichever team wins this game will be on track to finish with the best regular-season record in the NFL and get a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
No guarantees, of course. But if the Eagles improve to 9-1 following a road win over the defending champs, even with a few tough games after this on their schedule, it’s hard to see them finishing with fewer than 13 wins, and Hurts, if unscathed physically Monday night, figures to be shorter than +200 for MVP.
And if the Chiefs improve to 8-2 and are looking at a remaining schedule without a single opponent currently over .500 on it, it’s also nearly impossible to envision them not getting to at least 13 wins. And Mahomes, if he escapes Monday’s game with a win and his health, is a lock to be shorter than +200 for MVP — perhaps dropping all the way down to even money.
The two considerations here are distinct. You have betting on Hurts for MVP at +300 vs. betting on the Eagles to defeat the Chiefs at +126. And then you have betting on Mahomes for MVP at +330 vs. betting on the Chiefs to win the MNF matchup at -145.
So while maybe Hurts for MVP is a strong value play for those expecting a Philly victory Monday night, Mahomes for MVP is a considerably more clear-cut value play for those anticipating a Kansas City home win.
Others with a ing chance 24mu
With almost half the season still to go, there are of course other contenders for MVP besides Mahomes and Hurts. Especially because, statistically, Mahomes and Hurts don’t jump off the page.
Mahomes is sixth in the league in ing yards per game, and Hurts is 10th. Hurts is 10th in er rating, while Mahomes is 11th. QBR has Mahomes third and Hurts sixth. Mahomes has thrown for 17 TDs against 8 interceptions and doesn’t have any rushing TDs yet. Hurts also has 8 INTs and has tossed 15 TDs — while rushing for 7 more.
The numbers are impressive, but they don’t compare to the stats Mahomes won the award with in 2022: 5,250 ing yards, 41 TDs, and a er rating 8.5 points higher than this season.
So the door is slightly ajar for someone else even if the winning quarterback on Monday night leads his team to a league-best 14-3 or 15-2 record. Who are the possibly someone elses?
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is next on the odds board — he’s actually tied with Mahomes at +330 at DraftKings, but between +450 and +500 at most books (including BetRivers, where that bettor-best 5/1 can be found). His stats are similar to Mahomes’ and Hurts’, and his team is 8-3 with a shot at the top seed in the AFC, although some tough games remain and Jackson will have to do it without injured tight end Mark Andrews.
Then there’s Tua Tagovailoa, the MVP favorite for a brief period early in the season, now +600 at most sportsbooks. His numbers are better — second in the league in yards per game, second in TD es, second in er rating — but he has Tyreek Hill to thank for much of that, and his Dolphins have lost heads-up to both the Chiefs and Eagles.
Brock Purdy is lurking (as high as +2000 at DraftKings), but the 49ers’ recent three-game losing streak will be hard to ignore, especially with conventional wisdom saying Christian McCaffrey is the MVP of their offense.
Dak Prescott is +3000 at DK and Fanatics and beginning to put up gaudy numbers, but the 7-3 Cowboys have lost to both the Eagles and 49ers and still have Philly, Buffalo, Miami, and Detroit on their schedule.
The C.J. Stroud (+2000) MVP hype seems to have died down after the rookie threw three picks against Arizona on Sunday, Josh Allen (+4000) plays for a 6-5 team, and Joe Burrow is done for the season.
A lot can change with eight weeks of football still to be played, but either the parlay of “Eagles beat Chiefs/Hurts stays healthy most of the rest of the season” or “Chiefs beat Eagles/Mahomes stays healthy most of the rest of the season” will be tough for Lamar, Tua, Dak, or anyone else to overcome.
Taylor Swift won’t be in Kansas City on Monday night. The clear-cut frontrunner for MVP at game’s end will be.
