Can anyone beat the Celtics?
The oddsmakers behind the curtains of several major sports NBA championship and first since 2008.
Kevin Garnett was the most important player on Boston’s last title team after he was acquired in a preseason trade from the Minnesota Timberwolves. And after eliminating the reigning champion Denver Nuggets in a topsy-turvy seven-game series on Sunday, the Wolves are -170 favorites at FanDuel to get past Dallas in the Western Conference Finals and advance to the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history.
To make it to the NBA Finals, the Celtics will have to dispense of the upstart Indiana Pacers, a deep, high-octane team that took advantage of costly injuries to the higher-seeded Bucks and Knicks to advance to its first Eastern Conference Finals since 2014. Boston is anywhere from a -900 (bet365) to -1200 favorite to swiftly get past the Pacers, with DraftKings seeing a sweep (+210) as the likeliest scenario.
Other sportsbooks are apparently more mindful of Boston’s propensity to dump Game 2 at home, with FanDuel pricing a five-game series win at +155 and a sweep at a far fatter +320. Regardless of how it all goes down, the Pacers are extreme underdogs (30/1 at bet365) to claim their first NBA title, while a bet on either Indiana or Minnesota to win its first championship can be placed at +230 odds at DraftKings.
If you’re keener on the Timberwolves to be the team out of that pair to emerge triumphant, your money would be better spent backing Minnesota to win it all at +290 at FanDuel, whereas a Mavs title is priced at a consensus 5/1.
Moreover, a sports bettor who’d like to wager that any of the three teams other than Boston will hoist a championship banner can take the field at +135 at bet365.
The MVP angle 5v3c
The respective conference finals should offer a study in contrast. Boston and Indiana like to whip the ball around in the half court and run whenever possible, while Dallas and Minnesota have a ton of length on the defensive end are more prone to iso-heavy sets featuring two of the game’s best scorers — Luka Doncic and Anthony Edwards.
These differences are reflected in the totals for each Game 1, with Boston (-10 at DraftKings and FanDuel) and Indiana expected to combine for 222 points on Tuesday, and Minnesota (-4.5 at ESPN BET) and Dallas projected at 206.5 for Wednesday’s series opener.
While history has proven that little credence should be given to how playoff opponents fared against each other during the regular season, Boston won three of its five meetings against Indiana during the first 82 games, while Minnesota took three of four from Dallas. It’s worth noting, however, that all of those Timberwolves-Mavs tilts took place well before the trade deadline, when Dallas bolstered its front court by adding both P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford.
For bettors who expect the favorites to face off in the championship round, wagering on the series MVP markets is a way to find some value. There, Jayson Tatum is a -220 favorite (bet365) to be named MVP of the Eastern Conference Finals — far shorter odds than are being offered on Boston to advance.
Out west, Anthony Edwards is -140 favorite at DraftKings to be voted MVP of the Minnesota-Dallas series, while those who foresee potential upsets can grab the likes of Doncic (+180 at DraftKings), Kyrie Irving (20/1 at ESPN BET), Tyrese Haliburton (12/1 at bet365), and Pascal Siakam (20/1 at DraftKings).
The Zinger cometh 2a5l5g
Extrapolating this betting strategy out to the NBA Finals, Tatum is a +120 favorite at ESPN BET to be named NBA Finals MVP. At that same sportsbook, he’s followed by Edwards at +325; Doncic at 6/1; Jaylen Brown at +825; Derrick White at 22/1; Karl-Anthony Towns and Haliburton at 30/1; and Irving, Siakam, and Kristaps Porzingis at 40/1.
Right, Porzingis! If there’s an X-factor for the Celtics this postseason, he’s it. The 7’2” Latvian center is an absolute cheat code when he’s on the floor, but he’s been sidelined with a calf injury since April 30.
Porzingis is expected to return midway through the Indiana series. Should he suffer any setbacks, however, Boston will be forced to rely on Al Horford and Luke Kornet for rim protection.
That’s been enough to get the Celtics past a pair of injury-depleted teams in Miami and Cleveland, and it may suffice against the Pacers. But should Boston be forced to face off against either Minnesota or Dallas without the services of its prize preseason acquisition, a recipe for disappointment could be in the offing.
