Since what only could be considered a slow start for him during a 2024 PGA Tour campaign that saw him emerge from the first five tournaments winless (albeit with four top-10 finishes), Scottie Scheffler has gone on to win five of the tour’s last eight tourneys while also tying for second twice and eighth once.
The most impressive of those finishes may well have been the T8 in the PGA Championship, a tournament that saw him quickly change out of a jail-issued jumpsuit and into his golf duds just before the second round.
Scheffler’s first four wins — a run that included adding a second green jacket to his closet — were of the back-to-back variety. If that trend continues, with Scheffler having won last weekend’s Memorial by a stroke over Collin Morikawa, a second major title of the year could be his at this weekend’s U.S. Open at North Carolina’s Pinehurst No. 2 course, which last hosted the tournament in 2014.
“The first question you have to ask yourself this week is whether or not you want to bet Scottie Scheffler,” said Derek Farnsworth, a senior golf writer and analyst for RotoGrinders (a sister site of Sports Handle’s). “If the answer is yes, you probably don’t need to add anyone else to your outright card. My advice would be to make some placement bets in lieu of more outright bets.
“Personally, I have a hard time betting a golfer in a field of 156 golfers at +325.”
Scheffler is the only golfer at SuperBook Sports with single-digit odds. Rory and Xander are the co-second choice at 12/1. This is a massive underlay, Scheffler isn't Tiger circa 2001…yet. https://t.co/v6h2i9wNUS
— Matt Rybaltowski (@MattRybaltowski) June 10, 2024
Scheffler’s odds for an outright win stood at +350 at the SuperBook midday Tuesday, which is when Sports Handle caught up with the sportsbook’s primary golf oddsmaker, Jeff Sherman.
Below, edited for length and clarity, is a transcript of commentary provided by Sherman and Farnsworth in response to a series of questions put to them by Sports Handle.
Sports Handle: What are some of the hallmark features of this Pinehurst course, and whose games are particularly well-suited to its layout and weather?
Derek Farnsworth: Pinehurst No. 2 is not your typical U.S. Open test. While the course measures over 7,500 yards, it’s expected to play extremely firm and fast. There’s very little rough to speak of, which is usually a staple of a U.S. Open course. Instead of rough, golfers will have to navigate sandy waste areas.
It’s really up to lady luck when golfers stray from the fairway, as you can just as easily catch a good lie as you can a bad one.
The greens here are large in size but play a lot smaller than that due to their shape (like a dome) and the lack of rough. Even slightly errant approach shots will get repelled by these greens. Scrambling is set to play a big role, as the last three winners at this course were all ranked in the top five in scrambling the week they won.
I expect a golfer who’s precise off the tee, good with long irons, and excellent around the greens to win this week.
Jeff Sherman: The runoff around the greens — you can get yourself in trouble. Tee to green, approach shots — the U.S. Open has all aspects, but your approach shots into the green this week.
Everyone knows the obvious starting point with Scottie — his metrics are so much better than anyone else. But coming in hot right now is Collin Morikawa (16/1). He really looks like a contender this week.
SH: Scottie Scheffler is, understandably, a pretty short favorite to win his sixth tournament of the year. Four of his five wins have been back-to-back efforts. Do you see any reason why he might be in for a letdown at Pinehurst?
JS: The only thing that can come into play on this type of course is you can get some big numbers on some holes. It’s easier to take yourself out of the tournament than to win the tournament.
He got away with a triple-bogey last Saturday and still won the tournament. It can easily get away in this type of format. That can happen to anybody, including Scheffler.
DF: There’s nothing to suggest Scheffler is going to struggle this week. In fact, there’s nothing to suggest he won’t be leading on Sunday afternoon.
He’s head and shoulders above everyone else on tour when it comes to strokes gained tee to green, and since switching to a mallet putter, he has gained strokes putting in seven of his last eight events.
The only possible letdown is that golf is hard and sustaining this pace seems impossible.
SH: As with all majors, we’ve got some LIV Tour in the field, with Bryson DeChambeau (20/1), Brooks Koepka (25/1), Jon Rahm (35/1), and Cam Smith (40/1) viewed as serious contenders. Do you see good value in betting on any of those guys to win?
JS: Those guys I don’t, but I did take a LIV guy who has relative value, and that’s Tyrrell Hatton. This week, he’s an outsider at over 50/1 (60/1). He doesn’t command the betting interest, and that’s part of the reason.
DF: The number on Rahm is one that I never expected to see in a major for the next 10 years. He’s typically priced in the Rory McIlroy (12/1) range. However, he’s struggled in the first two majors of the year and is now dealing with a cut between two of his toes.
Smith has been one of the best scramblers in the game over the last five years, but he has struggled mightily in his last two starts, only beating a handful of golfers in last week’s LIV event. I’ve learned to never count Koepka out in the majors, so betting him at 20/1 is certainly fair.
My favorite of the bunch is DeChambeau, who has been in contention in each of the first two majors this year. He’s a cerebral golfer who should have a nice game plan for Pinehurst No. 2.
SH: Now is as good a time as any to check in to see whether betting is up or down year-over-year on each tour’s events and whether having two tours has increased or decreased overall golf handle.
JS: It’s all PGA-driven. LIV is not much to write home about. It’s tough to find when they’re playing outside the U.S., things are tape-delayed on the CW. The coverage availability hurts the handle.
We write comparably with LIV like we do on the DP Tour. We do more with PGA. We do props [on the PGA], but LIV, we just put up the outright and some tournament matchups.
The PGA can have a very poor field against a good LIV field, and the PGA will still outwrite it.
SH: At the SuperBook, you’ve got guys like Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Shane Lowry, Tom Kim, Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, and Jordan Spieth all between 50/1 and 80/1. With Scheffler the only golfer in single digits, I’m not sure I’d even call these guys long shots, but which of the golfers in the 50/1 to 99/1 tier has a good opportunity to win or be in contention on the last day?
JS: I would like to think Thomas, just because those are odds we’re not used to seeing him at. He’s had a decent season — he’s just had a few bad rounds and hasn’t held it together. The other guys have had their struggles and drifted out.
DF: My favorite bet in that range is Sahith Theegala at 50/1. He was always known as a short-game specialist during his first few years on the PGA Tour, but that’s no longer the case.
Over the last three months, he’s top-15 in this field in both strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained on approach. Believe it or not, his biggest strength — around the green — is actually what has held him back this year. If he can recapture some of that short-game magic, I like his chances of being in the mix on Sunday.
SH: Same question, except for golfers at 100/1 or longer odds.
DF: If I’m betting anyone greater than 100/1 this week, I am going to add a top-10 or top-20 bet as well.
Alex Noren is currently sitting at 100/1, which seems like a very fair number given the fact that he’s finished in the top 25 in eight of his last nine starts. During that stretch, he’s been positive in all four of the Strokes Gained categories — off the tee, on approach, around the green, and putting. His long iron play and short game could make him a real contender this week.
JS: I wouldn’t mind Denny McCarthy around 150/1 (he’s currently at 125/1). He’s fifth in scrambling, and you’re gonna need that here. He’s just a solid player a lot of people don’t know about who can make some noise.
SH: Finally, how will you be betting this tournament, and who will you be betting on to win?
DF: I have my eye on Morikawa and DeChambeau. They are both past major winners who come into the week in excellent form.
Morikawa has always been a good total driver of the ball and an elite iron player. Over the last few months, his short game has been impeccable. He’s also coming off three straight top-four finishes.
DeChambeau has been in the mix in each of the first two majors this year. Data Golf has him as the No. 1 course fit in the field, and I expect him to have a better game plan than most in the field.
JS: Over the last couple months, I’ve played a little bit of Scheffler at 6/1. I’m on Morikawa — I found 20/1 a week ago. I’m on Hatton and Theegala at 60/1.
Theegala is a guy, week in and week out, you’ll find shorter odds, so with it being a major, you’re getting a little longer out there.
