For a span of about 18 months in 2027-28, Los Angeles will be the center of the sporting universe, showing the world its state-of-the-art facilities, palm tree-lined beaches, and Southern California sunshine. But what it likely won’t be showing off is the massive sports betting revenue and handle that stakeholders in the industry are salivating for.
“Hell no. Unless there is a Festivus miracle and sports betting gets ed in 2024, there is zero chance that sports betting will get ed before 2027,” Las Vegas-based consultant Brendan Bussmann said when asked if wagering would be legal in time for Super Bowl LXI. “Even if it does get ed on the ’26 ballot, it won’t get implemented in time for the Super Bowl. And I don’t see a legislative solution where everybody is all kumbaya.”
The NFL owners California sports betting was a topic of discussion in either decision, but a newly proposed initiative has brought the subject to the fore again.
This fall, a group led by businessman Kasey Thompson tribes have responded negatively, as they did in 2021, when a group of seven commercial operators put forth an initiative that failed spectacularly on Election Day 2022. Late last week, the California Nations Indian Gaming Association released its most direct and searing comments yet, writing:
“The opposition coming from Indian Country is loud and it is clear. Tribes will not be distracted by outside influences making empty promises. Indian Country will stand firm in protecting our sovereign rights and integrity. We call on the proponents to do the honorable thing and withdraw these flawed initiatives.”
According to the release, CNIGA voted unanimously to oppose the proposals from Thompson’s group.
Tribes want to go on their own 4i6ob
California’s tribes have had a monopoly on casino gaming in the state since the 1980s, and over the last several years they have been vocal in their opposition to allowing commercial operators to take the lead on legal sports betting. Tribal sources have long told Sports Handle that they will “slow play” legal wagering on their own timeline, which very likely could mean a retail-only initiative on the 2026 ballot, followed several years later by a digital initiative.
Commercial operators in 2021-22 put forth a digital betting proposal and tried to work with the tribes, but in the end, Indian Country wasn’t interested in sports betting on someone else’s . Leading tribes spent nearly $250 million to kill the proposal, along with their own brick-and-mortar initiative.
The latest episode of the #WorldSeriesofPolitics' is up
and ed by the @VictorRocha1 in the first crossover event for @iGamingBusiness with The New Normal as they discuss the latest developments in #California sports betting. @bbussmann #sportsbetshttps://t.co/TJDEtrRQ2W— B Global (@BGlobalAdvisors) December 20, 2023
Thompson’s group, which is awaiting a title and summary on its proposal, should be able to begin collecting signatures in early 2024 in order to try to qualify for the November ballot. Like the commercial operators in 2021-22, Thompson’s group amended its initial proposal and worked in tribal suggestions, but Indian Country remains opposed.
“We will not allow imposters to exploit our good names,” CNIGA Chairman James Siva wrote in a letter to Thompson’s group. “An aggressive campaign will be waged against these reckless initiatives — like in 2022, which resulted in an 82% NO vote — that harm potential legitimate efforts to authorize sports betting responsibly in California.”
But this week, a report surfaced from PlayUSA indicating that four rural tribes favor the proposal, which they say could dramatically change the lives of the poorest, most rural tribes. The seven commercial operators who had hoped to legalize in 2022 had similar from three of the state’s disadvantaged tribes, but it did not stop the most powerful tribes from campaigning against the initiative, leading to its failure.
Indian Country, industry divided 565j27
Thompson and his group said they would only move forward with a majority of from Indian Country. Thompson believes his proposal is “the best tribal bill in history” and that the four rural tribes that have voiced are just the beginning. But CNIGA tribes want Thompson to honor his promise not to move forward unless he has a majority.
“We are hereby notifying you of the strong opposition from more than half of California tribal nations to these offensive proposals that masquerade as tribal initiatives,” the tribes wrote in a letter to Thompson’s group. “Again, we expect you will keep your word and urge you to abandon these proposals without delay.”
California tribes say, once again, they oppose proposed sports betting initiatives https://t.co/fJN4NaSOvb
— The Sacramento Bee (@sacbee_news) December 19, 2023
As has been the case in the past, it seems clear that Indian Country has some division within it and that the commercial operators and the tribes are still at odds. Given their wealth and massive lobbying power, the biggest and most powerful tribes — including Federated Indians of Graton Rancheria, the Morongo Band of Mission Indians, the Pechanga Band of Luiseno Indians, and the San Manuel Band of Mission Indians — will likely continue to drive the success or failure of any gambling proposals. The logos for all four appear on the letter sent from CNIGA to Thompson’s group.
“First and foremost, you’ve got to get the tribes all moving in one direction, either with everyone on board or without interference. If you had FanDuel, the SBA (Sports Betting Alliance), and everyone else on the same page with the tribes, things will move quick,” Bussmann said. “But if you throw in other people who have another solution, it causes everything to take longer. The tribes have said, ‘We have a land-based solution.’ We’d probably have land-based sports betting today if there wasn’t interference in 2022.”
Polling: Voters won’t betting in ’24 263g1n
Those interested in legalization also have to consider the temperature of California voters. After the nasty fight in 2022, there seems to be little interest in entertaining another gambling expansion. According to Siva, polling done by multiple tribal groups indicated that about 40% of California voters would a tribal-led initiative and about 30% would legal wagering without the tribes involved. Pollsters generally like to see an approval rating of 60% or higher before bringing an issue to voters.
“One thing that is consistent is that for this voting cycle, the polling numbers are not positive both with tribal inclusion and without tribal inclusion, where it gets bad really, really quickly,” Siva said. The numbers “kind of mirror the vote from last year.”
Beyond the politics of being able to give the sports betting option to California’s voters, there is a question of timing. Should the question of legal digital betting get on the ballot and be approved in November 2024, it would likely be at least a year before platforms could be up and running, meaning Californians would only be betting late in 2025.
But if an effort in 2024 fails, the next opportunity to go to the voters would be in November 2026. In most states, it takes 6-12 months from when betting is legalized until it is live, which would mean betting would not be live by the Super Bowl in February 2027.
In addition, the tribes right now are looking at a stepped legalization, with in-person wagering first. If that’s the case and a 2026 initiative ed allowing tribes to open brick-and-mortar sportsbooks, anyone who wanted to bet would have to go to a tribal casino to do so in 2027.
