Boxing is not a numbers-driven sport — unless you count the number 0, which propels marketability for those who have that number on the right side of their record. The sample sizes in the Sweet Science are too small, the in-game statistics too nuanced, the chance of one big punch erasing a hundred smaller punches too ever-present.
But Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, boxing’s biggest star, sits on the precipice of a pair of rare and meaningful numbers entering his super middleweight championship defense Saturday night in Las Vegas against Jermell Charlo.
Canelo’s record stands at 59-2-2 with 39 knockouts. That means he is one win away from 60 and one knockout victory away from 40. In the modern boxing era, in which superstars tend to fight once or twice a year and it’s possible to become a first-ballot Hall of Famer with barely 30 fights, the 60/40 club is highly exclusive.
Not a single Hall of Famer whose pro career began in the 2000s is in the club. Only two Hall of Famers whose primes arguably came in the 2000s are : Wladimir Klitschko (64-5, 53 KOs) and Marco Antonio Barrera (67-7, 44 KOs). Even Manny Pacquiao, who will soon waltz into the Hall in his first year of eligibility, is one KO short at 62-8-2 with 39 KOs.
Alvarez needs one more knockout win to become the first great champion since Klitschko to the 60/40 club. Will it come against Charlo, himself an elite reigning champion (albeit two weight classes below Canelo) looking to add to his impressive, more era-appropriate record of 35-1-1 with 19 KOs?
The betting odds say yes to the 60, no to the 40. And the actual result depends largely on how much Canelo has left entering his 64th pro fight.
Win, lose, or draw 645k3
Alvarez was the all-but-unanimous choice for pound-for-pound king of the sport until he lost by unanimous decision to Dmitry Bivol in May 2022. Since that flat performance against a masterful mechanic, he’s gone the 12-round distance twice more, scoring uninspired wins over Gennady Golovkin and John Ryder, both times as a prohibitive favorite.
So it’s been nearly two years since Canelo, now 33, (a) looked great in the ring, and (b) knocked anybody out. That isn’t impacting the moneyline odds for this fight appreciably, but it does seem to be swaying the method-of-victory odds.
Shopping around at the SuperBook has a more handsome payout on him at +325.
Neither boxer is a stranger to major bouts ending in draws — Canelo was widely considered fortunate to escape with a draw in his first fight in the Golovkin trilogy in 2017, while Charlo settled for a draw just two fights ago against Brian Castano. (Charlo made a more definitive statement with a 10th-round stoppage win in the rematch.) For Canelo-Charlo, the draw is +1600 at most books but a more appealing +2000 at DraftKings.
The split between Canelo to win by decision and Canelo to win by KO/TKO/DQ is highly intriguing. He was between -300 and -375 to knock Ryder out in May and couldn’t quite deliver, and even though Charlo is the smaller (though taller) man moving up in weight, those odds look very different this time around. Alvarez by decision is the chalk outcome, at a best price of -110 at DraftKings, while the Mexican by KO is as high as +280 at FanDuel.
On the Charlo side, decision is +500 at bet365 and DraftKings, and KO is +1100 at bet365.
Knockout props, knockdown props, and more 5v3f3n
Even though Canelo is on a three-fight streak without a stoppage, one attractively priced option for Saturday is Canelo by KO in rounds 7-12, priced as high as +500 at bet365. In his career, Canelo has scored 13 wins in the eighth round or later. For a point of comparison against star fighters with similarly illustrious careers, Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather had eight such victories apiece.
Canelo is a patient fighter who ramps up the pressure as the rounds wear on. Yes, a 12-round distance fight is more likely, according to the odds boards — the best price on the fight to last all 12 rounds is -215 at FanDuel. But Charlo getting stopped is plenty possible, and if it’s going to happen, it’s far more likely to happen in the back half of the bout.
Along similar lines, DraftKings has a unique either/or market on a Charlo victory. Given how unlikely it would seem that the challenger is going to stop Alvarez in the first six rounds, a price of +360 on Charlo to win either in rounds 7-12 or by decision at +360 may be more appealing than the best price (SuperBook’s +325) on Charlo to win straight up.
As is often the case with major fights, FanDuel has a wide assortment of “specials” at long odds, many of them involving knockdowns. Notably, in 63 pro fights and 472 rounds, Canelo has never suffered a knockdown. Charlo has tasted the canvas just once, against Charles Bellamy in 2014.
So you may think props that require knockdowns Saturday night are unwise, but if the price is long enough, they can be worth considering. Recall that for boxing’s last mega-fight, Terence Crawford vs. Errol Spence in July, Sports Handle singled out a +1600 prop on a knockdown scored in the first four rounds because, even though it seemed unlikely, there was value at that number. Crawford dropped Spence in round two to cash those tickets.
This time around, there are decent prices for bettors who think Canelo’s power will break through. FanDuel pays +650 on Charlo to suffer a knockdown in rounds 1-6, +700 on two or more total knockdowns in the fight, and +1400 on Charlo getting knocked down two or more times. If indeed Canelo is able to hurt Charlo — a counter left hook or a bodyshot would seem the most likely avenues — then it is not unreasonable to expect him to score a knockdown, have Charlo beat the count, and drop him again.
Then there’s the extreme longshot option: Both fighters knocked down anytime in the first six rounds at +18000. Nobody should risk large portions of their gambling bankroll when the reasoning is simply, “stranger things have happened,” but … stranger things have happened.
For what it’s worth, this Showtime Pay-Per-View event has a stacked undercard, with Armando Resendiz (+360 at FanDuel and DraftKings vs. favored Elijah Garcia), Erickson Lubin (+350 at bet365 and DraftKings vs. favored Jesus Ramos Jr.), and Mario Barrios (+300 at FanDuel vs. Yordenis Ugas) all live ‘dogs. And +1600 at all sites on an Ugas-Barrios draw isn’t out of bounds either.
