When the Dolphins dropped 70 on the Broncos in a spectacular Week 3 display, Miami’s high-flying offense fell just a field goal shy of the NFL record for points by one team in a game.
On Sunday night, the Dolphins may need to again light up the scoreboard to outlast the Bills in a prime-time showdown for the AFC East title. But even if the Dolphins score 70 again, the “under” is a virtual lock to hit on a creative season-long wager at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Before the season began, DraftKings offered a prop that allowed bettors to wager on the total number of points scored throughout the league for the 2023 regular season. Following a season in which teams averaged fewer than 22 points per game for just the second time in a decade, DraftKings set the total at 12,495.5, with -110 on both sides.
Barring a historic scoring explosion in Sunday’s final day of the regular season, the under will come in by a comfortable margin.
Through 256 games, NFL teams have collectively scored 11,242 points, equating to 21.96 per team per contest. Bettors holding “over” tickets need all 32 teams to combine for 1,254 on Sunday to collect their winnings. Teams would have to average 39.2 points apiece to get there.
If the first 15 games (two Saturday and 13 during the day on Sunday) land on the league average of 44 points (660 points total), the Dolphins and Bills would need to combine for 594 in the final game for a backdoor cover.
To quote Lloyd Christmas in Dumb and Dumber, “so you’re telling me there’s a chance.”
Bettors cashing in on the under 236r54
Five years ago, in Patrick Mahomes’ first season as a starter, two high-powered offenses met on Monday Night Football. Oddsmakers set the total between the Rams and Chiefs at 63.5, the highest in NFL history. When Samson Ekuban returned a Mahomes interception 25 yards for a third-quarter touchdown, the teams sured the over.
In the end, the Rams prevailed 54-51, marking the first time in league history that two teams scored at least 50 in the same contest.
My, times have changed. By midseason, the under was hitting at a clip of about 60% as battered offenses turned to backup quarterbacks.
| Year | Total Pts | Avg PPG Per Team | PPG | Games Per Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 11,860 | 21.9 | 43.8 | 17 |
| 2021 | 12,502 | 23.0 | 46.0 | 17 |
| 2020 | 12,692 | 24.8 | 49.6 | 16 |
| 2019 | 11,680 | 22.8 | 45.6 | 16 |
| 2018 | 11,952 | 23.3 | 46.6 | 16 |
| 2017 | 11,120 | 21.7 | 43.4 | 16 |
| 2016 | 11,661 | 22.8 | 45.6 | 16 |
| 2015 | 11,680 | 22.8 | 45.6 | 16 |
| 2014 | 11,565 | 22.6 | 45.2 | 16 |
| 2013 | 12,005 | 23.4 | 46.8 | 16 |
Last month’s total set in the mobile gambling apps of 30.5 in the Pats-Steelers game ranked as the lowest over the last 15 years. Two backups, Mitch Trubisky and Bailey Zappe, received the start in that prime-time matchup. Three days later, the total between the Browns and Jags also lingered in the low 30s.
The Browns turned to Joe Flacco for emergency relief following a season-ending injury to Deshaun Watson. While Flacco has put up video game stats, many other subs have not. Through Week 15, nearly 20 NFL teams started a quarterback who did not serve as their opening-day starter. Up to that point in the season, 56 different NFL quarterbacks had started a game, and there will be additional first-timers (Carson Wentz, Jeff Driskel, Blaine Gabbert) getting the call in Week 18.
The Under World… 👿📉
+ NFL unders are now 83-52-1 (61.5%), best thru 9 weeks since 1991
+ Monday Night Football unders are 10-1 in 2023 and 55-28-1 since 2019This season…
+ Night game unders: 22-7 (62-29 last 2 yrs)
+ 2H unders: 82-53-1— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) November 7, 2023
For the season-long prop, approximately 79% of bettors took the under, a DraftKings spokesperson told Sports Handle. DraftKings did not answer questions regarding the largest wager it took on the market.
When asked about the offering ahead of the season, DraftKings Director of Race and Sportsbook Operations Johnny Avello responded that the company is continually searching for ways to bring innovative markets to its customers. DraftKings did not make Avello available for this story.
DraftKings has not indicated whether it plans to offer this total-points prop again next season.
