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The French Open, held annually at Roland Garros, is renowned for its demanding clay courts and the surprises it often serves up. As we approach this year’s tournament, it’s intriguing to consider how the favorites have fared historically, particularly in the women’s singles draw.
Before we dive into the historical analysis, if you plan on placing a bet on the French Open or any other sporting event in the future, don’t forget to check out our section on the best betting sites.
Since 2000, the favorite heading into the French Open has clinched the title on only eight occasions, translating to a success rate of just 33.3%. This statistic underscores the unpredictability and competitiveness of the tournament. Recent history, however, has seen a slight shift, with Iga Świątek winning the title as the pre-tournament favorite in both 2022 and 2023. Prior to Świątek’s back-to-back triumphs, the last favorite to secure the championship was Serena Williams in 2015.
Serena Williams stands out in this regard, having won the French Open three times as the favorite—in 2015, 2013, and 2002. Over her illustrious career, Williams entered the tournament as the favorite on nine occasions (2002-2004, 2008, 2012-2016), demonstrating her consistent dominance in women’s tennis.
Świątek’s victories in 2022 and 2023 add to her impressive record, with her 2020 win also adding to her French Open tally, although Simona Halep was the favorite that year. This makes Świątek one of the few players to have multiple wins at Roland Garros both as the favorite and under less expected circumstances.
Analyzing the performance of the favorites further, the average finish since 2000 has been around 10th place. This average takes into various early exits: the favorite has been knocked out in the first round twice (considered a 65th place finish), in the second round once (33rd place), in the third and fourth rounds twice each (17th and 9th place respectively), in the quarterfinals four times (5th place), and in the semifinals twice (3rd place). Despite these setbacks, the favorite has reached the final 11 times, losing three of those finals.
Below is a breakdown of how the pre-tournament favorites have finished in the French Open since 2000.
Nationality-wise, the French Open women’s singles title has been diverse in its distribution. Since 2000, American, Belgian, and Russian players have each won four times. Polish players, thanks in large part to Świątek, have won three times. The remaining victories have been spread among Czech, Australian, Romanian, Latvian, Spanish, Chinese, Italian, Serbian, and French players, each securing the title once.
When considering the betting landscape, the average odds of the tournament winners have been +466, whereas the average odds for the pre-tournament favorites have been +212. This year, Iga Świątek is the favorite with odds of -170 on Fanduel, reflecting her current dominance on clay. Meanwhile, Coco Gauff is the third favorite at +800, and Aryna Sabalenka’s odds to win (+500) closely align with the historical average odds of winners since 2000.
Below is a breakdown of the historical odds of the pre-tournament favorites heading into the French Open since 2000.
As the 2024 French Open approaches, the question remains: will the favorite continue the recent trend of success, or will Roland Garros once again showcase its famed unpredictability? Tennis fans and bettors alike will be watching closely to see if Świątek can defend her title or if another underdog will emerge victorious from the clay courts of Paris.
This year’s tournament promises excitement and high stakes, continuing the rich tradition of surprises and stellar performances at Roland Garros. Whether the favorite wins or an unexpected champion rises, the French Open remains a pinnacle of drama and excellence in women’s tennis.
