The first round of the 2024 NFL Draft is Thursday night, and nobody knows anything past the Chicago Bears at No. 1. That storied franchise will be taking USC quarterback Caleb Williams.
Of course, there are no sure things in this life, but Williams is about as sure as it gets. Right now, at Caesars, you’d need to bet $200 to win a buck.
With the No. 2 pick? before ballooning back up.
The only problem: The Washington Commanders, who hold the pick, have been about as tight-lipped as could be. Sure, many NFL insiders — including ESPN’s Adam Schefter — have publicly stated they’re leaning Daniels, but it’s far from a done deal. If it were, those odds wouldn’t be -425. They’d be in Williams territory.
So, what’s a bettor to do?
“J.J. McCarthy going second,” said Connor Allen, the sports betting manager at 4for4 Fantasy Football. “Exactas are ripe if he goes second, with Daniels and (UNC quarterback Drake) Maye following behind in some order at 3 and a likely trade up at 4.”
In that scenario — Williams, McCarthy, Daniels, Maye and Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. — FanDuel is offering +8000 odds. Flip-flop Daniels and Maye, and it’s +8500. FanDuel is offering other permutations of this with other players at No. 5, and they’re all at much higher odds.
If the parlay life isn’t for you, Anthony Amico, a draft expert and contributor at Establish The Run, points out McCarthy by himself at No. 2 is paying out above +1000 everywhere right now, with Caesars leading the way at +1200.
“I think that projects both market over-confidence in Jayden Daniels and under-confidence in McCarthy,” Amico said. “We don’t really have any solid intel that the Commanders are going to take Jayden, especially after that Topgolf fiasco and his agent tweets.”
Chaos and more chaos l525d
Again: We’re still at the No. 2 pick here. Chaos may enter the building sooner than most expect.
Beyond those first few picks, the back half of the top-10 market offers numerous favorites that, perhaps, don’t deserve to be — especially at No. 8.
Right now, the Atlanta Falcons hold the pick, and it’s widely expected they will take a defensive player here.
Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner has long been the favorite, but the odds have gotten jumbled in recent days. In fact, UCLA’s Laiatu Latu has eclipsed Turner at DraftKings, where he’s +150 to go No. 8.
If you’re sensing a “but” …
“The back half of the top-10 is also very interesting with the Falcons potentially trading out and a team swooping in to grab Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers,” Allen said.
The thought process here: Harrison gets drafted, and the Giants, picking at No. 6, take Odunze or Nabers, widely considered to be the second- and third-best wide receivers in the draft (with some having either of them ahead of Harrison).
The Chicago Bears pick ninth, and many observers would expect them to grab one of the receivers should they fall to them.
So, if another wide receiver-hungry team wants one of these three, a trade with the Falcons is the only way.
Washington’s Odunze is +650 to go eighth at FanDuel. LSU’s Nabers is +2400.
The NFL Draft begins at 8 p.m. ET Thursday night, broadcast live on ABC and ESPN.
