With the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine in full swing – and with a mere 55 days until the NFL Draft happens in Detroit – it certainly seems like a good time to check in with the NFL Draft sports betting markets.
One immediate item that catches attention is this: The sportsbooks are taking their sweet time getting markets up and running. This has been a trend in recent years, undoubtedly to help stem the tide of sharp bettors getting a leg up in this ultimate information game.
Connor Allen, the sports betting manager at 4For4 Football, is one of the sharps that always seems to have his ear to the ground when it comes to what’s rumbling down the draft tracks.
And this year, Allen is already looking past the number one pick.
“The number one pick market looks all but locked up,” Allen said. “The draft starts at number two.”
As to the why? A look at the odds board is all you need to see. USC quarterback Caleb Williams is the overwhelming favorite, with odds upwards of -2000 at BetMGM, at -1100.) The Chicago Bears currently hold that pick.
Number two pick and more 3k4u3w
The two spot, held by the Washington Commanders, is almost certainly going to be one of two quarterbacks: North Carolina’s Drake Maye, or LSU’s Jayden Daniels.
“No one knows who the Commanders prefer, so I would take the plus money on Daniels right now since I think it is pretty close to 50/50 at this point,” Allen said.
ESPN BET at -130. One way to play this would be to take Daniels now, and hope steam moves the market the other way, and then take Maye at plus money at some point. (Of course, if one thinks one of these quarterbacks is a lock at number two, betting both now could lock in a small profit.)
At number three are the New England Patriots, another quarterback-needy team. Allen expects the Patriots to take whoever is on the board here, and the books agree. The best odds for any non-QB at three is Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., with BetMGM offering +275 odds on Harrison. Notable: Both Maye and Daniels are plus-money at number three, with Maye at +200 at BetMGM and Daniels at +170 at FanDuel.
At number four, Harrison Jr. will be the favorite to Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals, but odds for the pick aren’t posted yet. FanDuel does have a “which team will draft Harrison Jr.,” and the Cards at -190 lap the field.
ESPN BET is offering a 1-2-3 market, with Williams-Maye-Daniels being the +180 favorite, and Williams-Daniels-Maye going off at +225.
Of course, plenty can – and will – change post-Combine. Already, Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy is gathering more interest than originally anticipated, and a strong combine (especially matched with the fact Williams, Daniels, and Maye aren’t expected to throw at the combine) might upset those odds for number two and number three. For what it’s worth, McCarthy is +2000 to go number two at FanDuel, and +800 to go number three at DraftKings.
As it stands today, DraftKings has the most robust NFL Draft selection, including the position of player taken by many NFL teams, ten markets featuring which team certain players will be drafted by, and the position of Mr. Irrelevant.
Quarterback – undoubtedly due to Brock Purdy – is the favorite there at +225.
