Want to know which teams the bookmakers think have the best chance of winning the World Series? FanDuel Sportsbook’s odds for World Series MVP as the postseason begins Tuesday offer quite a telling hint.
The five players with the shortest odds all come from the National League’s two top-seeded teams. From the NL East champion Atlanta Braves, presumptive league MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. has odds of +1000, followed by teammates Austin Riley and Matt Olson each at +1800. Just below them on the odds board are Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman of the NL West champion Los Angeles Dodgers, both priced at +2000 for World Series MVP.
Those numbers suggest that it’s all but a foregone conclusion that either the 104-win Braves or the 100-win Dodgers will be representing the Senior Circuit in the season’s climactic series.
The odds to win the NL pennant at the major mobile sportsbooks also show a clear separation between the Braves, the Dodgers, and everybody else:
| BetMGM | Caesars | DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | +125 | +115 | +125 | +125 |
| Dodgers | +200 | +225 | +200 | +200 |
| Phillies | +600 | +675 | +600 | +700 |
| Brewers | +900 | +900 | +800 | +700 |
| Diamondbacks | +1800 | +1800 | +1300 | +1700 |
| Marlins | +1800 | +1800 | +1400 | +2000 |
So it’s natural to want to pencil in an Atlanta-L.A. NLCS showdown. But the situation was almost identical last October, after the same two teams each won more than 100 games and got byes into the NL Division Series. And both of them lost those best-of-five series in four games.
Brewers rotation tough to top 2ps1w
Such is the unpredictability of a short series in the MLB postseason. There’s not great financial upside to betting on the chalk when the highest payout on the Braves is +125, at several books, and the top price on the Dodgers is +225, at Caesars. The greater potential return comes from identifying a wild card team in action this week with a realistic likelihood of going on a run.
The wild card series are best-of-three, with the superior seed hosting all games. In both NL series, despite the wackiness that can ensue when a team only needs to win two games to advance, the home clubs are clear-cut favorites.
Up first, with Game 1 scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2, is a matchup between the NL Central champion Milwaukee Brewers and the sixth-seeded Arizona Diamondbacks.
The D-backs had to fight until their second-to-last game to secure a playoff spot, putting them at a disadvantage by having pitched Zac Gallen this past Friday and Merrill Kelly on Saturday. So rookie Brandon Pfaadt is expected to take the mound in Game 1, hoping to improve on his 5.72 ERA.
Milwaukee, meanwhile, has arguably the best three-game rotation in baseball: Corbin Burnes (3.39 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), Brandon Woodruff (2.28 ERA, 0.82 WHIP), and Freddy Peralta (3.86 ERA, 1.12 WHIP). Burnes is slated to start in Game 1.
And if those starters stake the Brewers to a lead, Arizona is in trouble given that the Milwaukee bullpen — led by closer Devin Williams and his changeup known as “The Airbender” — topped all MLB ‘pens this season in win probability added.
The only NL playoff team that has never won a World Series, the Brewers range from a -175 favorite at DraftKings, over/under 2.5 games is -110 in each direction.
The best moneyline price on Milwaukee in Game 1 is -175 at DraftKings, whereas the highest payout for Arizona taking the opener is +164 at bet365.
Start of another Red October? 1iq5r
An hour after the Brewers-Diamondbacks series gets underway, two wild card teams from the NL East, the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins, will begin their best-of-three set in Philly with ESPN televising.
The Phillies were that team in 2022 that kept reminding fans and bettors of the variance inherent in modern-day postseason baseball, as they entered as underdogs against the Cardinals, Braves, and Padres, and topped them all before coming up short against Houston in the World Series. The formula that worked last October — two aces in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, big bats capable of getting hot at the right time — remains intact this year, though Nola has looked decidedly less ace-like in 2023.
The Marlins scored the fewest runs this season of any team in the NL, are without injured 2022 Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, and got to the postseason by virtue of a staggering 33-13 record in one-run games. It’s no mystery why Miami has the longest odds (+2000 at FanDuel) of any team to win the NL pennant.
Then again, every ‘dog is live in the MLB playoffs, and the Marlins qualified as a wild card each of the two times the franchise won the World Series.
Still, the sportsbooks give a clear edge to the Phils, who tied with the Braves for the most home runs in MLB over the final two months of the season. To win the series, Philadelphia is -200 at FanDuel and PointsBet (but a more customer-friendly -185 at DraftKings), while FanDuel and PointsBet both offer a +160 return on Miami. At both PointsBet and DraftKings, there’s -120 juice on the series to go under 2.5 games.
Even without Alcantara, the Marlins have a potent Game 1 starter in Jesus Luzardo, while the Phils will counter with Wheeler. The best moneyline price on the Phillies Tuesday night is -160 at BetMGM, while a Marlins backer can get +145 on an outright win at bet365.
Interesting side betting note: All four wild card Game 1s — NL and AL — have run totals of 7.5 at FanDuel, well below the 2023 regular-season average of 9.23 runs per game. The books are recognizing the tendency for scoring to dip in the postseason. We’ll have to wait until the weekend to see if that tendency applies to the juggernaut Braves, who scored 947 runs this season — the most in 70 years by any team that doesn’t play its home games in Denver’s thin air.
