Sweet 16 NCAA Picks and Parlays – March 27 – 28: Arizona to Cover vs Duke, Arkansas to do the Same Against Texas Tech 3m5f1u

The opening week of the NCAA basketball tournament was as exciting as it gets. Nevertheless, all four first seeds advanced, making Auburn, Houston, Duke, and Florida still among the favorites to win the title. Arkansas is probably the biggest surprise as they defeated No. 2 seed St. John’s in the second round to make it here.

The weekend is packed with excitement, and we have a few games that promise more than most. Among them, Arizona vs Duke and Michigan vs Auburn are sure to excite the fans, while Arkansas goes up against Texas Tech in search of another upset.

Also on the table are Kentucky vs Tennessee and Purdue vs Houston. So here is our take on these games and the way we think they may go betting-wise.

*Sports betting carries inherent risks, and outcomes can be unpredictable. The recommendations offered here are based on current data and analysis but should not be viewed as guarantees of success.

Arizona Wildcats vs. Duke Blue Devils – Arizona to Cover the Spread 745e

The Arizona Wildcats face a steep challenge against the Duke Blue Devils in the Sweet 16, with Duke entering as a 9.5-point favorite and heavy moneyline pick (-520). While Duke’s elite offense (led by Cooper Flagg) and stifling defense make them the clear favorite, Arizona’s improved play since November – including standout performances from Caleb Love and Carter Bryant – could keep the game competitive. 

Consider Arizona +9.5 to cover the spread, as the Wildcats’ faster pace and Duke’s weaker schedule (60th-ranked strength of schedule) might narrow the margin. For totals, lean Over 153.5 if both offenses exploit defensive vulnerabilities.

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders – Arkansas to Cover the Spread 3c5i6y

The Arkansas Razorbacks aim to extend their Cinderella run against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Sweet 16, with Tech favored by 5.5 points and a -235 moneyline. While Texas Tech’s stifling defense (ranked 37th nationally) and dominant rebounding could control the tempo, Arkansas’s return of leading scorer Adou Thiero (limited to 12–15 minutes) adds offensive punch to their high-pressure defense.

As far as betting tips, consider Arkansas +5.5 to cover, as their athleticism and tournament momentum might keep the game tight. For totals, lean Under 148.5 if Tech’s grind-it-out style prevails, though Arkansas’s transition offense could push the pace.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Tennessee Volunteers – Kentucky to Cover the Spread 5e57g

The Kentucky Wildcats face a stiff test against the Tennessee Volunteers in the Sweet 16, with Tennessee favored by 4.5 points (-218 moneyline) and a total of 145.5. While Tennessee’s elite defense and balanced scoring pose challenges, Kentucky’s recent success against the Vols – including two regular-season wins – and strong rebounding could keep the game competitive. 

Back Kentucky +4.5 to cover, as the Wildcats’ familiarity with Tennessee’s system and tournament momentum might narrow the margin. For totals, lean Over 145.5 if both offenses exploit defensive vulnerabilities, though Tennessee’s grind-it-out style could push the pace.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Auburn Tigers – Michigan to Cover the Spread 522n1l

The Michigan Wolverines face a daunting challenge against the Auburn Tigers in the Sweet 16, with Auburn favored by 8.5 – 9.5 points (-375 moneyline) and a total of 152.5 – 153.5. While Auburn’s high-pressure defense and explosive offense (ranked third nationally) make them the clear favorite, Michigan’s disciplined half-court attack and rebounding prowess could keep the game competitive. 

Consider Michigan +8.5 to cover, as the Wolverines’ physicality and Auburn’s weaker ATS record as heavy favorites (11-9 ATS as ≥9.5-point favorites) might narrow the margin. For totals, lean Under 153.5. if Michigan’s grind-it-out style slows the pace, though Auburn’s scoring bursts could push the Over.

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Houston Cougars – Purdue to Cover the Spread 3d5e2

The Purdue Boilermakers face a monumental challenge against the Houston Cougars in the Sweet 16, with Houston favored by 8.5 points (-375 moneyline) and a total of 132.5. While Houston’s elite defense (ranked No. 1 nationally) and balanced offense make them the clear favorite, Purdue’s tournament momentum and home-state crowd advantage at Lucas Oil Stadium could narrow the margin. 

We would say to take Purdue +8.5 to cover, as the Boilermakers’ rebounding edge and Houston’s weaker ATS record as heavy favorites (14-12 ATS as ≥8.5-point favorites) might keep the game competitive. For totals, lean Over 132.5 if Purdue’s faster pace and Houston’s offensive efficiency exploit defensive vulnerabilities, though the Cougars’ grind-it-out style could push the Under.

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